Heuristic Judgment of Availability, Killing Oneself, Practicality and Action#
date: November 6, 2022
slug: 8
status: Published
tags: Weekly Report
type: Post
I. Heuristic Judgment of Availability#
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Heuristic:
People rely on many simplified strategies or experiential methods when making decisions.
For example: When considering whether someone needs to participate in this project; because they usually dress untidily, I may infer that they are careless, do not pay attention to details, lower my evaluation of them, and choose someone else instead. -
Heuristic of Availability:
We tend to make judgments based on easily accessible information. Some events can evoke people's emotions, especially vivid and recent events, which are easier to retrieve from our memory. Therefore, we are more likely to consider events with low probabilities.
A large part of our judgment and decision-making about something comes from the information we have encountered, which is the heuristic of availability. People always make decisions based on the information they are most familiar with. The most familiar information is the information that has been recently and frequently encountered. Decisions made by decision-makers based on this recent and familiar information are unreasonable.
The application of the heuristic of availability can reveal a basic law of social thinking: the process of deducing a specific example from a general axiom is slow, but the process of inferring a general axiom from a vivid example is very rapid.
- Probability Neglect:
We worry about low-probability events.
It turns out that our naive statistical intuition and fear of statistical results are not based on calculation and reasoning, but are influenced by the emotional impact brought by the heuristic judgment of availability.
II. Everyone is Constantly Killing Themselves#
In fact, each of us is constantly killing ourselves as we grow.
In the process of growing up, I will kill my childish self, my emotional self, my ignorant self, and so on.
This "self-judgment - killing" behavior is our own self-regulation. By timely killing the "bad self," we can gradually shape our character, thereby influencing our present and future behavior and creating our own life.
Having the courage to face oneself is important.
III. The World at the Crossroads#
My feeling this year is that it seems like I am standing at the horizon of a setting sun, looking back at the short-lived brilliance, and a huge black curtain will eventually fall. It is very similar to the sunset I saw in the Devil's City that year, grand and lonely. The sentence "May the world be safe and sound" written at the beginning of the year has not been realized after all.
The Western world is falling into collective confusion and becoming increasingly shortsighted and gloomy. China is striving to catch up with its current status, but the overall level of productivity in the world is not enough to allow 2.5 billion people to live a high-standard life.
And there is the COVID-19 pandemic.
In short, if there is no new productivity input into human society, there is not much left of the dividends of the third industrial revolution.
Where will this century go next?
IV. Facing Some Things#
Recently, I have been reading an interesting novel:
Of course, spellcasters are usually pragmatists, and Yang Xiyi is no exception. He never cares about things he cannot intervene in, at most, he just waits for a result.
Not knowing how to solve a problem does not mean not doing anything. All progress is actually made step by step. This is also the principle that Professor Li taught himself.
The other party understood what Yu Lian meant and directly sneered, "You are wrong again. The so-called right thing is not the perfect calculation result of me, an advanced robot, but the social foresight and thinking! Of course, I know that humans are social animals, they always have desires, conflicts, and historical repetitions. But if you really attribute the mistakes to the so-called weaknesses of carbon-based monkeys and their inherent flaws that cannot be overcome, where does progress come from? Why don't you just stay in the cradle until you die?"
Chanting scriptures will never kill anyone! Therefore, it is not thoughts that are invincible, but actions.
"The most foolish thing in this world is not doing what should be done because of the bad things that may happen in the future. Moreover, even if the worst situation really happens, is it necessarily a bad thing in the longer term?"
What is truly great for individuals, nations, and even countries is forged from suffering. Otherwise, prosperity is nothing more than a fleeting illusion.
V. Goals for the Next Week?#
- Core vocabulary of CET-6 past papers - 700 out of 1922 remaining.
- Review of probability theory.
- Complete the paper for finance.
- Professor Pan Hong: Build the website for the Digital Economy Research Institute.
- Blog update goals:
- Add "Dialogues"
- Deployment and usage of NovelAi.